In many ways, the 2024 season will be more of the same for Penn State. James Franklin is back in Happy Valley for his 11th season and his team was tipped to finish third in a crowded Big Ten. Sure, Oregon is the conference favorite alongside Ohio State while Michigan falls behind after winning the conference outright last year, but it's still familiar territory for the Nittany Lions.
On the roster, Drew Allar returns at quarterback, flanked by the Lawn Boyz, who will lead the running attack for the third consecutive season, and the defense should once again be among the top 10 units in the country.
Yet, despite all that familiarity, this team has two new coordinators, a revamped wide receiver room and its best defensive player at a new position. On top of that, a familiar finish in 2024 with a 10- or 11-win regular season could lead to a College Football Playoff berth for the first time.
There are big questions surrounding Franklin's group and with kickoff on Saturday in Morgantown, those three questions will now be answered.
Regardless of what Andy Kotelnicki's new offense looks like at Penn State, it's abundantly clear that the identity of this team, and in recent years of this program, starts on the defensive side of the ball.
Up front, Tom Allen's unit will be great, with Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton forming possibly the best pass-rush duo in the country. Still, there are uncertainties in the secondary heading into Week 1. Kevin Winston Jr. and Jayleen Reed are key pillars at safety, and Zakee Wheatley is a reliable third when Reed slides into the slot. At cornerback, however, Penn State is relying on a few new faces.
After Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Daequan Hardy left for the NFL, Franklin realized the cornerback position was empty, so he acquired AJ Harris from Georgia and Jalen Kimber from Florida through the transfer portal and prioritized the position in the 2025 recruiting class, securing commitments from four-star players Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph.
In his first season at Georgia, Harris played just 89 defensive snaps, but he could be counted on to be CB1 for the Nittany Lions. Kimber has much more experience and a track record as a sure tackler in the SEC, but in 2023 he allowed 18.5 yards per reception, which ranked him 476th among the 519 cornerbacks who played at least 100 coverage snaps.
Cam Miller will also play a major role in this rotation, but if Franklin goes 0-2 in the transfer portal, Penn State's secondary is in trouble. However, if Harris develops into a star and Kimber can be a stabilizing force as a veteran, the Nittany Lions could have another top-5 defense.
Ultimately, one of the scariest things about Penn State's season is that Kotelnicki and the Nittany Lions offense are relying on Trey Wallace, a redshirt junior with just 38 catches for 501 yards and two touchdowns, as their No. 1 outside target. Wallace began last season with 15 catches in six of the team's first eight games before suffering a season-ending injury.
In 2022, Wallace played 13 games but only 211 snaps and was targeted by Sean Clifford only 35 times. Wallace has the talent to be a reliable field stretcher, but in the Peach Bowl he seemed athletically inferior to the Ole Miss secondary and didn't start scoring until garbage time.
Even when healthy, Wallace never managed even 1.50 yards per route run over an extended stretch, a mark that would still put him only 32nd among the 70 Big Ten receivers who had at least 10 passes in 2023. His 1.41 yards ranked him 37th, just three spots better than Dante Cephas.
It looks like Wallace and Liam Clifford will be Allar's backups at the wide receiver position, and that may not inspire much confidence among a fan base craving an elite playmaker. But if the injury-prone Wallace is out in 2024, it's unclear if Penn State has enough offensive power to pick up the slack.
As far as a Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff are concerned, if the answer to that question is no, all other questions about this team are irrelevant. The former five-star quarterback will need to take a significant step forward in 2024, especially in the most important games on the schedule.
Last season, he began his career as a starter with 325 passing yards and three touchdowns against West Virginia, but never again topped 300 yards. Without reliable wide receivers, Allar was hesitant to take risks on the field. That attitude led to an excellent 25-2 TD-INT ratio, but also put Penn State 109th in the country with just 30 passing plays over 20 yards.
A good quarterback can win 11 games with this Penn State roster, a great one can pressure Ohio State on Nov. 2 at Beaver Stadium, and an elite QB, the kind of player Allar was credited with being out of high school, can highlight the surrounding talent on offense and put the Nittany Lions in the race for a national championship.
If Penn State finishes 10-2 and misses the 12-team CFB or is eliminated in Round 1 of the playoffs, it doesn't mean Allar is a bust or that Beau Pribula should get a shot at the starting job if both quarterbacks return for 2025. But it does mean Allar hasn't lived up to expectations so far, because those are the expectations that come with being the top quarterback recruit in the country.
